Sneak up on decarbonization: planning for failure

Understanding the state of your campus equipment now, as well as the risks involved with their operation, is crucial to planning for their failure and eventual replacement. An added benefit of this understanding is that it will allow you to think strategically about decarbonizing your campus so you can strike at the right time. Decarbonization will never see you coming!

What is planning for failure?

Investing in a full-fledged decarbonization plan can sound like a massive undertaking to replace a building or campus’s heating, cooling, and other energy-intensive infrastructure with fossil-fuel-free systems. That’s all well and good, but the price tag is enough to scare off even the most seasoned CFO.

As an alternative, think about your equipment in terms of when it is likely to fail and plan accordingly. Maybe your gas-powered boiler has a 25-year life expectancy, and its impending demise is in three years. Rather than replace it in kind, you can plan now to seize the opportunity to sneak up on decarbonization by thinking through the incremental changes you can take to get there.

Multiply that boiler replacement project times however many pieces of equipment you have over ten or 15 years and you may have yourself a very sneaky decarbonization plan indeed.

How to sneak up on decarbonization

Decarbonization planning can take many forms. One option GreenerU has developed is called “zero-over-time” planning. Zero-over-time plans are highly practical, long-term, and phased decarbonization roadmaps. They are designed to align with each organization’s unique capital planning cycle and operational constraints, enabling steady, financially manageable progress towards zero carbon without overwhelming budgets or resources.

As an example, GreenerU managed a construction project that decarbonized 85% of the building using air-source heat pumps and retained a gas-fired boiler in the design for supplemental heating to an existing hydronic system. This zero-over-time plan targeted equipment that was at the end of its life and starting to fail, while retaining components that had a few years of life left—a.k.a., planning for failure.

Strategically planning around the failure of equipment allows you to choose the best financial investments and make significant advances practical and achievable.

Benefits to planning for failure

A good and sneaky zero-over-time type of decarbonization plan will not only meet your renewal needs; it optimizes project timing and aligns with broader emissions targets. This type of plan also has other benefits:

It will avoid critical system failures. Reacting to sudden critical equipment failures leads to overpaying for equipment that’s available and potentially not the best fit for the application. Engaging in long-term planning allows you to prepare for these scenarios.

It will take advantage of grants and incentives. Many grant opportunities spring up with limited timelines for applying. Having a well-defined project plan puts you in a position to pursue opportunities using an articulated approach. Many institutions aren’t in a position to begin installing new, zero-emissions systems. But with a plan for failure, they will be able to strike when the iron is hot and take quick advantage of potential future opportunities and incentives.

It will enable you to plan other projects around your decarbonization goals. One of GreenerU’s clients was recently replacing air handling units. Rather than replacing the units with equipment matching the same specification, which would have fulfilled current needs, the coils that assist with heat transfer were upsized to be compatible with lower-temperature hot water. This made the system compatible with the facility’s overall decarbonization plan, which included converting the hot-water heating system to a heat-pump-based system, eventually operating at lower temperatures. This design decision for the air handlers would have been overlooked, if not for having a clear vision of the longer-term plan.

It allows you to communicate more effectively. Decarbonization plans create a story you can share with your stakeholders, a story that includes benefits and explanations. This can be useful for gaining approval for projects and budgets, aligning with broader institutional goals, and raising funds or applying to grants.

These advantages to planning for failure are particularly crucial right now, as budgets are being cut and sustainability is being deprioritized. We need to be strategic now more than ever, and this is a perfect time to plan.

GreenerU is here to help you get sneaky about decarbonization. Please reach out to us to help you with your plan for failure.

  Back to Articles