Planning in times of uncertainty: addressing the global climate crisis

By Jennifer Haugh

Let’s face it: living in 2025 America is tough.

No matter where you fall on the political spectrum, we are experiencing unprecedented extremes in approaches to governance. Not too long ago, we had the passage of the Inflation Reduction Act, with $783 billion committed to climate and energy spending, and $1.2 trillion Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act. Then, more recently, the current administration froze EPA, DOE, and Interior spending. These actions are now being challenged in court.

But our global climate crisis is not going away. Even in times of historic uncertainty and the back and forth of the political pendulum, we still have a responsibility—maybe even an opportunity—to plan and prepare for better outcomes. Here’s how we might get there.

Preparing for worst-case scenarios

Back in 2008, my job was in corporate communications for a major public radio broadcaster in downtown St. Paul. That’s where the Republican National Convention was scheduled to take place just down the street at the Xcel Energy Center.

It seemed like everyone downtown was preparing for the RNC in some way, be it new businesses or fresh green spaces or increased police presence.

Any sort of major event such as a political convention is inherently fraught. Tensions are high. Anything could happen. A lot of things could go wrong.

In my case, my workplace operated a 42-station network, providing news and information to every corner of Minnesota. Not only that, we housed NPR’s back-up network operations center in our building, and we were also part of the national Emergency Alert System network. For us, shutting down wasn’t an option.

So a team of us started thinking about preparing for worst-case scenarios.

By nature, I am a hopeless optimist, so I alone was not up to this task. But I am a planner through and through. So I was more than happy to facilitate a round-table discussion among a hodgepodge of alarmists on staff we’d identified. These were some of the most delightfully reliable fearmongers we knew, and when asked about the worst that could happen, they did not disappoint.

What if we faced a bomb threat? What if protesters got into altercations with our staff on their way to work? What if traffic delays prevented our newscasters and operations staff from getting into work on time? What if one of our reporters got caught up in a violent exchange and wound up injured?

Planning when times are chaotic

The state of current affairs today brings to mind the task of planning in times of uncertainty. Deportations, federal funding cuts (including to public media), word bans, a yo-yoing stock market and zig-zagging tariffs, a shaky economy, federal department closures, and most likely a whole host of additional executive orders that will be signed by the time this piece is published are creating a sense of chaos and unease amongst my peers, colleagues, friends, and clients. With so many variables in this equation, how is it possible to predict the future?

The answer: it’s not.

But when it comes to figuring out what to do, there is followership, and there is leadership.

Effective followers “have the courage to accept responsibility, challenge authority, participate in change, serve the needs of the organization, and leave the organization when necessary.” Followers are helpful in getting the day-to-day work done and keeping the engine humming.

Every organized effort needs followers. The term is not black and white—leader and follower can apply to the same individual depending on the circumstances and the moment. There is a fluidity to leading and following that suggests that there is an inherent need for flexibility when navigating uncertainty.

Effective leadership, both at the individual and the institutional levels, is a combination of creating a shared vision of a more desirable future and a willingness to accept risks and navigate through uncertainty. Adaptive leadership—which I studied in graduate school with Dr. Ron Heifetz—introduces the concept of getting “assassinated,” i.e., being shot down (literally or figuratively) in the process of trying to make change. Leadership takes courage. A lot of courage.

In deeply uncertain times such as these, practicing adaptive leadership means mobilizing your allies, actively listening, iterating to form shared goals, and holding steady as a team to walk through the fire. Sometimes you lead, and sometimes you follow.

To me, that sounds like a planning process. And in times of uncertainty at the national level, planning for a global climate crisis is exactly what we should be focusing on at the local level.

Leading through preparation for a time of greater certainty

For the 2008 Republican National Convention, my team of facilities, operations, public affairs, and communications personnel took the results of the “worst-case scenarios” brainstorming session and got to work on devising detailed response strategies for each one.

We set up a Tumblr feed and established a push notification to employees to communicate emergency updates. We designated individuals on each floor of the building to undergo evacuation training. We developed backup plans for any on-air personnel who might be delayed or detained.

In the end, we worked out decision-tree matrices for approximately 30 different scenarios. We had mentally rehearsed as many “what ifs” as we could concoct and felt ready to tackle almost any surprise that came up.

I reflect back on that time and see the parallels between then and now (politics aside). We couldn’t predict what was going to happen, but we hunkered down and created a plan for what could happen. Our vision was continued, seamless operations in the interest of serving the public. Our goals were to address operational challenges—be they inconveniences, emergencies, or outright catastrophes—and we developed strategies to achieve those goals.

You can start to see the parallels between the 2008 RNC and addressing our continued global climate crisis, progress toward which is being hampered by present-day uncertainty and chaos. Our impulse might be to halt climate action planning efforts, even in the face of a continuing global climate crisis—after all, what if the federal government revokes our nonprofit status? What if there are staff cuts? What if our institutional leadership is “assassinated”—i.e., publicly embarrassed, demoted, forced to resign, or fired?

I would follow those questions with other “what ifs.” What if our boiler breaks? What if our constituency starts to lose faith in our institutional leadership? What if we don’t meet our town’s building performance standards? What if we don’t prepare for climate-related inconveniences, emergencies, and outright catastrophes now and leave things to chance?

A plan is only as good as the process involved to create it. Sometimes it’s the very act of bringing people together to talk about the “what ifs” and create a sustainability, climate action, decarbonization, or campus energy plan that galvanizes communities and brings about stability.

Jennifer Haugh on her workplace rooftop in downtown St. Paul during the 2008 Republican National Convention, accompanying reporters to photograph protests on the streets below.

The power of planning in a time of certainty

So what happened downtown St. Paul, Minnesota, in September 2008?

As my former employer reflected in this flashback piece from 2012, the city experienced some of the most demonstrable unrest and political protests in its history on the eve of the RNC. There were indeed acts of violence. Windows of businesses were smashed. Police responded with tear gas, captured in this eerie photo of St. Paul’s iconic Mickey’s Diner. Democracy Now! reporter Amy Goodman was swept up and detained in a mass arrest of protesters while she was reporting.

At my workplace, we had a couple of minor hiccups, but nothing serious. We had no disruptions to service, no one was injured, and our building remained intact.

Our core team held meetings first thing each morning that first week of September to share information and review what had happened during the previous 24 hours. We stayed vigilant and kept our sense of humor.

In the end, we were ready for anything. We used that opportunity to create permanent operational guidelines for disaster and resiliency planning for the company. Our building was more secure and our employees were better prepared for the many different circumstances that could affect our lives and operations.

Again, it is not possible to predict what will happen in the coming weeks, months, or years as we navigate present-day circumstances. But I am a strong believer in the power of planning in a time of uncertainty. When the iron is hot, you will be ready to strike.

GreenerU is ready to help guide you through planning in a time of uncertainty. Contact us to schedule a conversation about sustainability, climate action, or decarbonization planning.

  Back to Articles